The Biggest Advantage Amateurs Have Over Professionals

The biggest advantage that amateurs can have over professionals is behaving randomly.  If amateurs do something randomly or without any reason, it can be difficult or impossible  for professionals(and other opponents) to deduce what range of hands he hold.  For example, if the amateur raises because he feels like it, it will be very difficult for a professional player to realize the reason behind his actions and behave accordingly.

Unfortunately for most amateurs, they do not use this strategy and amount to “doing what they feel” which makes it relatively easy for a professional to figure out why the amateur takes the actions he takes.  For example if an amateur checks a strong hand on the river when a flush card comes in, it is generally because he is worried about being beaten.  Thus, in the future, when a flush card comes in, a professional will deduce that it is much more likely that the amateur has a flush when he bets.  If the amateur threw a wrench into the professionals hand reading, for example, bluffing when the flush possibility was in spades, the professional would almost never figure it out and would be folding more often than he should.

This idea became clear to me when watching a hand played by an excellent live player who I will call Don.  The game was $5/10 no limit with $4000 effective stacks.  He raised preflop to $40 with 6d5d and was reraised by a bad amateur player to $150 which Don elected to call, knowing that the amateur almost surely had a big hand, either QQ, KK or AA.

The flop came Ts6c2d and the amateur bet $300(almost the size of the pot) after Don checked.  This almost certainly meant that the amateur had a big pair and Don knew it.  Don elected to checkraise to $800 hoping that the amateur wouldn’t want to put in so much money with his big pair, in addition to having a pair and a backdoor straight and flush draw in case he amateur called him.  The amateur elects to call.

The turn is a 7d, and Don elects to bet $1900.  Sitting at the table, I knew that Don just had one pair and was hoping the amateur would fold to this big bet.  The reason I knew this was because Don was a good player and almost certainly would have bet less if he wanted to be called, because that would make it more likely he would be, then make it more likely he would be called on the river.   For example, a much better bet sizing on the turn with about $3000 left would be $1200 on the turn and $1800 on the river and I knew that Don knew it.  So why would he bet so much unless he was trying to induce more folds from the amateur?  As it turned out, the amateur thought a long time, and eventually went allin with QQ and Don called, missed his flush draw and his two pair draw and lost.  I realized after that Don actually should have shoved the turn to induce the maximum amount of fold equity from the amateur.

Knowing that the Don would make the optimal play against an unknown opponent allowed me (and possibly his opponent) to decide that he did not have QQ beat and went allin instead of folding. In these situations professionals can be somewhat restrained by knowing what the optimal way to play the hand is and not wanting to veer too far away from that.  This leaves most of them playing relatively formulaic and makes it easier for good opponents to figure out what they are holding.   Adding a bit of randomness or doing things a bit oddly can make it much more difficult for your opponents to read your hand and can entirely change your image at the table.  So, randomly open to $100 on the button instead of $35 the first time your are on the button and the new dealer just sat and include whatever other randomness you can in your game.

Posted in Live Poker | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Inducing Mistakes

I went to Borgata for the weekend to get in some hours and played two hands that illustrated the principle of inducing big mistakes from your opponent.

The first one was the first hand I had played at the table.  The villain is not a good player and we have played a lot together.  He doesn’t fold any moderate hand preflop or anything on the flop.  He starts with $750 and I cover him.  Villain limps, another player limps and a good aggressive player raises to $75 and I reraise to $250 out of the big blind with QQ.  The villain calls and the aggressive player folds.  Villain has a very wide range of hands(approximately any ace, any two cards 10 or bigger and any pair as well as some other random hands he felt like playing).

The flop comes 955r.  There is $600 in the pot and villain has $500 behind.  Since I am way ahead of villains range and am not folding, the question is, what can I do to get him to put the rest of his money in the pot?  Since this particular villain is unlikely to bet, he just hopes to hit his hand, there isn’t much point in giving him a free card.  Shoving all in will get him to call his best hands(pocket pairs,big aces and hands that hit the board), but he will call a smaller bet with those hands anyways.  Betting small, allows him to call in hopes of making a hand on the turn and he will likely shove all of the hands he will call all in with.  I bet $200 (note that it’s less than the the amount he called preflop) and he thinks a long time before shoving all in with KQ.  I called and no King came for him to win the pot.

Just want to do the math quickly.  I am ~85%-15% favorite on the flop so if I shove all in and he folds, I win $600 for a profit of $350.  If he gets all in on the flop, then I am an 85% favorite in a $1600 pot, for an expected profit of ~$600.  The difference between a good play and the best play is ~$250.

The second hand is against a villain($1600) who had recently shown an unwillingness to fold, and a willingness to make huge bluffs in bad situations.  The pot is stradddled and villain limps for $20, another player calls and a loose player raises to $110.  I decide to reraise with QQ to $325, villain calls and everyone else folds.  The flop comes AAJ and villain leads $500.  I decide that I have the best hand and will not fold, so now what?  If I shove all in for about $750 more, villain will fold all of his bluffs and call all hands that beat me.  By calling the flop, I give him a chance to bluff the turn and collect another $775 if I am ahead.

Fortunately, this is exactly what happens, as the villain quickly shoves all in on the turn and  I call.  He shows 44 and I collect a pot that had an additional $775 from my opponent.

I believe that some of the biggest differences between professionals and amateurs is their ability to make the maximum with their best hands and avoiding situations where they put a lot of money in with little chance of winning.

Posted in Live Poker | Tagged , , , , , , | Leave a comment

Man Loses $2600 at Carnival Game

This couldn’t go without being posted.  Are they going to outlaw carnivals now?  http://www.geekosystem.com/life-savings-to-carnival-game/

Posted in Articles | Tagged | Leave a comment

Bet Sizing Live vs. Online

I have been listening to a few poker podcasts lately that talk about betsizing on later streets that I believe have the wrong idea.  The basic premise is that in live poker you want your opponent(or you, if he covers you) to have about a 2/3 pot sized bet left on the river.  The reasoning is that your opponent will have invested a significant amount of money already and will be getting good odds to call you.  I believe that it is a mistake to translate this play, that works on the internet, to live play for two reasons.

Firstly, live play is usually significantly deeper than on the internet.  This means that the river bet is going to be more significant amount live and you often will have had to announce your strength to your opponents earlier in order to be betting that amount.  The combination of these two effects means that your opponent will more often fold when a lot of money goes into the pot.  While this was not always the way people reacted in the past, I believe it is the way that the games are trending.

Secondly, on the internet the pot size is right in front of you, whereas in live play, you must make an effort to count it.  This means that while people have a general idea of the pot size being small, medium or large, they don’t know it exactly and thus a 2/3 pot size bet to them means less than it would online.  In addition, live opponents (especially the poorer playing ones) are more influenced by the amount you bet (also being small, medium or large) then the amount relative to the pot.  So, if the pot is “big” to them you will be called with roughly the same range for anything they perceive to be “big” bet.

So how should this affect your strategy?  I think that when value betting, you should be betting the most your opponent will call and that in live poker, the amount is inelastic once it has become “big.”  When value betting against certain opponents, you will have to be content with not getting their entire stack.  For an extreme example, if your opponent will not call more than $500 on the turn or river, then you are often best off betting $500 on both streets, instead of trying to set him up for a 2/3 pot size bet on the river(which he won’t call if it is more than $500).

Also, I think that you can push your opponents off hands by betting amounts that push them out of their comfort zones.  For example, in a limped 4 way pot, if the flop comes 922 and I lead out from the big blind and get called by one player.  I check the turn 4 and he checks too.  I can make a “big” bet on the river and win the pot most of the time, since when my opponent does not bet the turn, he doesn’t have a “big” hand and thus won’t call a “big bet” with it.

I hope this stirred up some thoughts on bet sizing, and I would love to hear what others think about the differences between live and online.

Posted in Internet Poker, Live Poker, Poker | Tagged , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

A Response to Criticisms of My Last Blog

I received a lot of encouragement of my last blog as well as some criticism.  After posting it to 2+2 here, I was surprised at the amount of people who were extremely critical, as I thought that a poker forum would be my target audience.  I have answered some criticisms in the thread and will attempt to collate more of the answers here.  Thanks to everyone who replied with support and in my defense especially Gemaco, JamesD816, SNGplayer24 as well as many others.

1.  ”Poker is not a job.”  Dictionary.com defines a job as “a paid position of regular employment.”  While playing poker online, I worked 50+ hours a week playing and working on improving my game and won nearly every week and every month.  The IRS considers professional gambling an acceptable occupation and I pay taxes as I would at any other job.  Just about anything that would make it “not a job” could be applied to things like professional athletes, stock traders, artists and a whole host of other professions.

2.  ”You wasted your time and education.”  My education provided me with the skills and ability to hone my poker game and anything else I do in the future.  I strongly believe that it is not for people to decide how others live their lives and what is best for them.  There are plenty of doctors who choose to administer botox and do plastic surgery instead of performing heart transplants and saving sick children in Africa.  They have chosen something that they are happy with and I do not think they have wasted their education.  Being challenged daily, working for myself and having my time be flexible were important to me and thus poker was a good choice for me, whereas it might not have been for others.  While I could have chosen to pursue other occupations (and still might), I do not consider my education a waste and it is a foundation I can always build on in the future.

3.  ”You should have chosen a more productive career path.”  There are so many jobs that could fall into the “unproductive” category that makes this argument almost laughable.  Is making a movie productive?  Does it make the world a better place?  No and no.  I don’t believe it is right for other people to judge and apply their values to others.  People enjoy watching movies and they enjoy playing poker, how big would the uproar be if the government told Steven Spielberg and other directors to “do something more productive” because movies don’t help anyone?  When I think of countries that tell people to do jobs that serve the public good, I think of North Korea, not the United States.

4.  ”You should have forseen the end of online poker when determining your career choice.”  I don’t believe that it was possible to see this outcome when I started playing poker in 2003.  Moreover, there are thousands of examples of jobs that were solid and safe, until technology changed and they were no longer viable.  Someone posted in the 2+2 thread that he had a secure job in the newspaper industry, which was a fantastic and stable job until people stopped buying newspapers.  Even if I could have seen what might have occurred in the online poker realm, that does not make what has occurred acceptable.

5. “You were not fired.”  I admit that I was not actually fired, since I was self employed, but frankly, it makes for a better headline.

Posted in Internet Poker, Live Poker, Poker | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a comment