Unfortunately for most amateurs, they do not use this strategy and amount to “doing what they feel” which makes it relatively easy for a professional to figure out why the amateur takes the actions he takes.  For example if an amateur checks a strong hand on the river when a flush card comes in, it is generally because he is worried about being beaten.  Thus, in the future, when a flush card comes in, a professional will deduce that it is much more likely that the amateur has a flush when he bets.  If the amateur threw a wrench into the professionals hand reading, for example, bluffing when the flush possibility was in spades, the professional would almost never figure it out and would be folding more often than he should.

This idea became clear to me when watching a hand played by an excellent live player who I will call Don.  The game was $5/10 no limit with $4000 effective stacks.  He raised preflop to $40 with 6d5d and was reraised by a bad amateur player to $150 which Don elected to call, knowing that the amateur almost surely had a big hand, either QQ, KK or AA.

The flop came Ts6c2d and the amateur bet $300(almost the size of the pot) after Don checked.  This almost certainly meant that the amateur had a big pair and Don knew it.  Don elected to checkraise to $800 hoping that the amateur wouldn’t want to put in so much money with his big pair, in addition to having a pair and a backdoor straight and flush draw in case he amateur called him.  The amateur elects to call.

The turn is a 7d, and Don elects to bet $1900.  Sitting at the table, I knew that Don just had one pair and was hoping the amateur would fold to this big bet.  The reason I knew this was because Don was a good player and almost certainly would have bet less if he wanted to be called, because that would make it more likely he would be, then make it more likely he would be called on the river.   For example, a much better bet sizing on the turn with about $3000 left would be $1200 on the turn and $1800 on the river and I knew that Don knew it.  So why would he bet so much unless he was trying to induce more folds from the amateur?  As it turned out, the amateur thought a long time, and eventually went allin with QQ and Don called, missed his flush draw and his two pair draw and lost.  I realized after that Don actually should have shoved the turn to induce the maximum amount of fold equity from the amateur.

Knowing that the Don would make the optimal play against an unknown opponent allowed me (and possibly his opponent) to decide that he did not have QQ beat and went allin instead of folding. In these situations professionals can be somewhat restrained by knowing what the optimal way to play the hand is and not wanting to veer too far away from that.  This leaves most of them playing relatively formulaic and makes it easier for good opponents to figure out what they are holding.   Adding a bit of randomness or doing things a bit oddly can make it much more difficult for your opponents to read your hand and can entirely change your image at the table.  So, randomly open to $100 on the button instead of $35 the first time your are on the button and the new dealer just sat and include whatever other randomness you can in your game.

The first one was the first hand I had played at the table.  The villain is not a good player and we have played a lot together.  He doesn’t fold any moderate hand preflop or anything on the flop.  He starts with $750 and I cover him.  Villain limps, another player limps and a good aggressive player raises to $75 and I reraise to $250 out of the big blind with QQ.  The villain calls and the aggressive player folds.  Villain has a very wide range of hands(approximately any ace, any two cards 10 or bigger and any pair as well as some other random hands he felt like playing).

The flop comes 955r.  There is $600 in the pot and villain has $500 behind.  Since I am way ahead of villains range and am not folding, the question is, what can I do to get him to put the rest of his money in the pot?  Since this particular villain is unlikely to bet, he just hopes to hit his hand, there isn’t much point in giving him a free card.  Shoving all in will get him to call his best hands(pocket pairs,big aces and hands that hit the board), but he will call a smaller bet with those hands anyways.  Betting small, allows him to call in hopes of making a hand on the turn and he will likely shove all of the hands he will call all in with.  I bet $200 (note that it’s less than the the amount he called preflop) and he thinks a long time before shoving all in with KQ.  I called and no King came for him to win the pot.

Just want to do the math quickly.  I am ~85%-15% favorite on the flop so if I shove all in and he folds, I win $600 for a profit of $350.  If he gets all in on the flop, then I am an 85% favorite in a $1600 pot, for an expected profit of ~$600.  The difference between a good play and the best play is ~$250.

The second hand is against a villain($1600) who had recently shown an unwillingness to fold, and a willingness to make huge bluffs in bad situations.  The pot is stradddled and villain limps for $20, another player calls and a loose player raises to $110.  I decide to reraise with QQ to $325, villain calls and everyone else folds.  The flop comes AAJ and villain leads $500.  I decide that I have the best hand and will not fold, so now what?  If I shove all in for about $750 more, villain will fold all of his bluffs and call all hands that beat me.  By calling the flop, I give him a chance to bluff the turn and collect another $775 if I am ahead.

Fortunately, this is exactly what happens, as the villain quickly shoves all in on the turn and  I call.  He shows 44 and I collect a pot that had an additional $775 from my opponent.

I believe that some of the biggest differences between professionals and amateurs is their ability to make the maximum with their best hands and avoiding situations where they put a lot of money in with little chance of winning.

$5/$10 at the Borgata.  Villain has $2000 and I cover him.  He raises to $40 and I 3bet to $150 out of the blinds with 9h9c.  I played about 10 hours with the villain  and he doesn’t like to fold or be bullied and likes to raise at any sign of weakness.  In an earlier hand I watched him bluff a full stack on an all spade flop and spade turn.  I had also seen him raise smallish looking bets throughout the day when he sensed weakness.  In addition, he would also call the flop lightly(float) with the hopes of winning the pot in the future if his opponents didn’t have anything.

The flop was a beautiful AhQh9s, and I bet $150 into the $300 pot.  This is about what I would bet with most of my hands since it folds out a lot of hands that missed(against this opponent who liked to float and raise I might have bet a different amount had I missed, but that’s for another time).  He quickly calls.

The turn is the 2h.  I believed that if I bet small, the villain wouldn’t be able to help himself and would turn whatever pair he had into a bluff or bluff with whatever he floated with on the flop.  I bet $170 and he raises to $625.  This is great for me, however there are a lot of scary rivers that can either make him a better hand(if he has KhTs or JsTc), or kill my action if he does happen to have something like As2s.  Given what I had observed, I thought the likelihood of him bluffing, and bluffing the river were much higher than him having a strong hand, so I elected to call despite the risks.

The river was the 4h, making the board AhQh9s2h4h and giving me a 1 card 9 high flush.  I check and villain immediately shoves allin for about $1100.  Though I am not thrilled with my hand on this board, and am not generally in the business of calling such large bets with relatively weak hands, I had a plan for the hand and I followed through with a call.  Villain says, “just an ace” and I show down a flush to win the pot.

I was very happy with the way I played the hand since I used the observations I had made about my opponent to win a large pot.  Had I bet differing amounts throughout the hand, it likely would not have played out in the same way, and I would have won a much smaller pot.

There is usually a fine line between costing yourself too much expected value in the present term in order to expand your range to gain yourself more expected value in the long term.  I see far too many players against whom it is difficult to narrow down their range, but because their range is so wide, solid play defeats them.  For example, if someone pushed all in every hand, they would be unreadable and their hand range would be wide, but it would be very easy to beat an opponent who plays like that.

Let me show you two examples where narrow hand ranges played a role in allowing me to win a pot I would not have ordinarily won.

Playing $5/$10 No limit with $2500 effective stacks.

There are 5 limpers and I call out of the small blind with 98o.  The flop comes Jh7s5s giving me an open ended straight draw.  I check, the big blind, who is a solid regular bets $50.  3 players call and I call as well.  The turn is the Tc.  I lead out $175 and the big blind makes it $675.  Everyone else folds and I am 100% sure that he has the straight here.  Because he is limited to only having the nut straight here (he wouldn’t raise 2 pair with so many people to act behind him, and wouldn’t bet the flop with 43 into so many people) we are currently splitting the pot.  However, I can make it look like I have something else so that if a scary card comes on the river, I can bet and hopefully win the pot.  Note how his limited range should allow me to play perfectly against him, while he has a more difficult time playing against me.

I elect to call and the best card comes on the river, the Js, bringing in the flush draw and pairing the board.  I elect to shove all in and he grumbles about it being the worst card for the straight and folds.  If he had a wider range then just the nuts on the turn(or if I thought he might have a wider range), then I would not have been able to play optimally against him and would have just shoved all in on the turn to with the hopes that he would call with a worse hand, or fold his equity in the pot.

Another example comes from pot limit omaha(in this game you MUST play 2 cards from your hand).  Effective stacks are $700.

There are 2 limpers and I complete the small blind with 8c7c7s6s. The flop comes Jc9d7d.  I bet $20 and only the big blind calls.  I have played with him a bunch and know that he will only put a lot of money in with the nuts and will not be tricky.

The turn is a 4c giving me a flush draw along with bottom set.  I bet $60 and the big blind calls.  My plan is to bet a river that does not pair the board or complete a flush just in case he has a bigger set.  Since I am representing T8 for the straight(and can easily have it), and I know he will never call the turn with the nuts or call the river without it, my bet is what I call a freeroll.  I am rarely beat by a better hand, but just in case I am, I will win the pot anyways.

The river is the 2s, completing no draws.  I bet the pot and the villain throws up his hands in disgust, shows me JJQT which had me in very bad shape, and folds it.  If my opponent was tricky in this situation and could have just called with the nuts on the turn so that HE could win the pot if the board changed, then I would have had a lot more concern about betting the river(and the turn too).  In this case, my opponents straightforward play caused him to lose a pot that another opponent might have won.

This makes paying attention to every hand extremely critical.  You never know when something you see will allow you to win a big pot because you can now act on the information you have discovered.  What this means is that every action a player takes has to be analyzed.  Did he bet, call or raise?  Did he show a hand down on the river?  Did he call or bet?  These are just a few of the many questions that need to be asked and answered about every hand played, categorized and then analyzed for use in future hands. It may seem like tedious work, but I look at each unique situation as a problem to solve and it’s a game to see if I can get it right.  It’s really fun to be right, and the bonus is that you win money when you are!

Here is a hand where the above came into play:

Someone limps, I limp behind with AQo and the cutoff raises to $40m, which he had been doing frequently and with a lot of hands, the button calls, the BB calls, the other limper calls, and I call.  So it’s 5 way to the flop for $40.  Earlier in the session the big blind turned trips and checked it from out of position on the turn hoping that someone would bet so that he could checkraise.  I had seen him do this and filed it away for later.

The flop comes KhKc4d and everyone checks the flop.

The turn is the 7s and the BB now leads $60. Using the information that I had gleaned earlier, I thought that he was likely to check trip kings on the turn.  Plus his bet looked like he was trying to win the pot cheaply with a weak hand.  So I raised to $180 and he folded.  Note that it cost me $180 to win $260 so it doesn’t have to work all that often to be correct.   He sighed and showed me 8h8c and folded saying “looks like you have a king.” I didn’t reply, but filed away “makes weak bet with weak hand in multiway pots on paired boards, and will fold to a raise” to his folder in my head for later use.

http://www.thinkingpoker.net/2012/02/whats-your-plan-turned-a-big-draw-results/

Flop comes A72hh. 3 checks to me and they look disinterested so I elect to check.

Turn is a 9. SB leads $35, villain calls. I make it $125. SB calls. Now villain makes it $680 total. Action is on me.