I will finish- 98%.  I have no doubt that I am fit enough and have the fortitude to finish, but sometimes a freak injury can occur, so that is why it’s not 100%

Rope Climb-30%. I have done a lot of pullups and simulated rope climbing, but have never actually tried it out for real.  Also, given that it will be muddy, at the end of the race and that I only have one shot at it, I think that number is realistic.

Monkey Bars-50%. I have practiced a bit and have done pretty well, but the monkey bars on the course are a bit longer and probably more slippery than I am used to.

Monkey Net Cargo- 15%.  I watched a few videos and just about everyone failed at this obstacle.  I will give it my best effort!

Barbed Wire Crawl-100%.  I am going to finish it, but its going to be long and awful.  That’s what everyone said last year, and Spartan Race made it harder this year.

80lb Stone Carry- 75%.  That seems heavy, and I have never done anything like it, but something tells me I will find a way to get it done.

Wall Climb 80%.  I’ve done a lot of pullups so I think I should be OK getting started and then it is just climbing.

Spear Throw 30%.  I have never thrown a spear.

Most of the other obstacles will take some effort and will, but I think I should be able to complete them.  If not, I have practiced a lot of burpees just in case!

Lebron James is one of the leading scorers in the NBA, and has been for the past 10 years.  He has been named to the NBA All Defensive First Team for five consecutive years.   This means that his impact on the game on both ends of the floor is enormous and that whomever comes off the bench to replace him is going to be a significant downgrade.  Therefore, when you elect to put him on the bench and to replace him with an inferior player, there had better be a compelling reason.

The reasoning generally given in situations like these is that you want ensure that he does not foul out so that he can play at the end of the game in case it is close.  I believe this is faulty logic.  Firstly, James has only fouled out 5 times in his 10 year NBA career, for an average of once every other year.  On average, he picks up 2.1 fouls per 48 minutes, meaning that even having picked up 2 early fouls, he is still extremely unlikely to foul out of the game.  It is extremely likely that he will be available at the end of the game, even having picked up 2 early fouls.

Secondly, sitting him early in the game costs his team points in the near term.  Every minute that James is not on the floor and is replaced by a lesser player, he is theoretically costing his team points.  In game 5, James played only 24 minutes instead of the 38 he has averaged during the playoffs.   Since he is averaging 34 points per 48 minutes, and his replacements Udonis Haslem and Shane Battier average 4 and 10 points per 48 minutes, his sitting for an extra 14 minutes cost his team approximately 6.6 points of offense.  Since it is unlikely that they can make up this point gap defensively (given that James was First Team All Defense), it is a good assumption that the cost to his team was greater than 6.6 points.

Thirdly, what about the concern about having him available at the end of the game?  Well, as addressed above, it is still extremely unlikely that James will actually foul out of the game (for more in depth analysis, you can look at the times he picked up 2 early fouls and do analysis of the times he has fouled out, though its a very small sample size).  This means that it is extremely likely that he will be available at the “crucial time.”  Even if James were not available for the final 6 minutes of the game because he had fouled out, that loss would not be more than the expected 6.6 points per game the Heat lost by sitting him(that would mean that the difference between James and his replacement was worth 52.8 points per game).

So if sitting James because of 2 early fouls is a poor decision, then why do coaches do it?  My guess is that since that is what every other coach does, it keeps them out of the line of fire.  Its also much harder to be criticized for losing with your star in the game, rather than losing when he has fouled out.

The best winning strategy should be to have the best team on the floor for the maximum amount of time, and this clearly includes having Lebron James on the court as much as possible.  Given the work done by other analysts like Nate Silver, Stephen Dubner and Steven Levitt, who have proven that there is no such thing as a clutch player or a hot hand, it should be clear that the goal is to create the most point differential throughout the game, not just at the end.

I try not to be results oriented, but the Pacers won by 3 points, 93-90, and that is well within the amount of points that sitting James cost the heat.

http://www.pokernews.com/news/2013/02/reaction-to-governor-chris-christie-s-conditional-veto-14298.htm

The United States actions in this case have been appalling.  They knowingly violated international trade agreements because they felt they should not be subject to the internet gambling portion of them.  When challenged by, Antigua, a much smaller country, they have taken on the role of bully by ignoring the independent WTO decisions and trying to withdraw from the parts of the agreement they have been ruled in violation of.  When asked to change the laws to comply with the WTO decision, the US agreed, and then a year later arrogantly stated that they deemed themselves to already be in compliance.

The way the US has handled the situation with Antigua mirrors what has been done with internet gambling within the borders of the US.  There is no law making internet gambling illegal, and in fact, you are free to buy lottery tickets online, bet on horse racing online and to go to a casino in ANY state(except Hawaii).  The idea that the line on prohibition of gambling should somehow be drawn at gaming on the internet, when state run online and land based casinos and lotteries are everywhere is ludacris.

Here is a link to the timeline of the dispute  http://www.antiguawto.com/WTODispPg.html

http://www.slate.com/articles/sports/sports_nut/2013/01/two_point_conversion_strategy_the_late_game_scenario_in_which_going_for.single.html#pagebreak_anchor_2

http://www.freakonomics.com/2012/09/20/why-online-poker-should-be-legal-full-transcript/

http://www.freakonomics.com/2012/09/20/why-online-poker-should-be-legal-a-new-marketplace-podcast/

http://www.forbes.com/sites/baldwin/2012/03/29/500-million-jackpot-calculating-your-odds/

Texas Hold’em is a game of poker where the best 5 card hand wins according to the poker hand rankings found here.  Everyone receives two cards and there is a round of betting.  Then 3 cards are dealt in the middle of the table for everyone to use, called the flop, and there is another round of betting.  Another card is dealt, the turn, and there is another round of betting.  Finally, one final card is dealt, known as the river, and there is another round of betting.

No limit Texas Hold’em means that you can bet any amount that you have on the table at any time.  You cannot bet more than that, but you can bet any amount you wish.  If someone has less than the amount you bet, the amount that you bet is reduced to the amount that they have(a term called “effective stacks.”)  What this means is that if I have $1000 on the table and you have $50, the most you can win is $50 and the most I can lose is $50.

The shorthand used to describe the cards is A for ace, k for king, q for queen, j for jack, T for ten, down to 2.  D is for diamonds, h for hearts, c for clubs and s for spades.  So a flop of AhQs4c refers to the ace of heart, queen of spades and the 4 of clubs.  An “s” after a hand that is dealt to an individual person(known as the preflop starting hand) means that it is suited and an “o” after means that it is not suited.  So, AKs means that someone is dealt an ace and a king of the same suit.  Sometimes the description will be more specific as in AhKh or AsKc, but the “o” or “s” is generally used when the suit is not important to the hand.

Variance refers to variation in results.  Because of the luck involved in poker, some once all the cards have been dealt, some situational, there is a lot of fluctuations in results.  It is good for the game, as it lets bad players win frequently, but it can often be difficult for winning players to deal with prolonged losing streaks.

Tilt means that players let their emotions take over and they play less than their best. It is often caused by bad luck, aka variance.